Computer predicts quakes in S.F. Bay area
Scientists say the San Francisco Bay Area has a 25-percent chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake during the next 20 years.
A University of California-Davis computer simulation called Virtual California was used to simulate earthquake activity in the San Francisco segment of the San Andreas fault over a 40,000-year period, yielding 395 simulated earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher on the Richter scale and an average recurrence interval of 101 years.
The simulation data predict a 25 percent chance of another magnitude 7.0 or greater quake occurring during the next 20 years, a 50 percent chance in the next 45 years, and a 75 percent chance during the next 80 years.
posted by Fergie @ 10/10/2005 02:41:00 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home